Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order By Ray Dalio

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Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order: Why Nations Succeed and Fail By Ray Dalio

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Book/Novel Author: Ray Dalio

Book/Novel Title: Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order

 

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NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER “A provocative read…There are few tomes that coherently map such broad economic histories as well as Mr. Dalio’s. Perhaps more unusually, Mr. Dalio has managed to identify metrics from that history that can be applied to understand today.” —Andrew Ross Sorkin, The New York Times From legendary investor Ray Dalio, author of the #1 New York Times bestseller Principles, who has spent half a century studying global economies and markets, Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order examines history’s most turbulent economic and political periods to reveal why the times ahead will likely be radically different from those we’ve experienced in our lifetimes—and to offer practical advice on how to navigate them well. A few years ago, Ray Dalio noticed a confluence of political and economic conditions he hadn’t encountered before. They included huge debts and zero or near-zero interest rates that led to massive printing of money in the world’s three major reserve currencies; big political and social conflicts within countries, especially the US, due to the largest wealth, political, and values disparities in more than 100 years; and the rising of a world power (China) to challenge the existing world power (US) and the existing world order. The last time that this confluence occurred was between 1930 and 1945. This realization sent Dalio on a search for the repeating patterns and cause/effect relationships underlying all major changes in wealth and power over the last 500 years. In this remarkable and timely addition to his Principles series, Dalio brings readers along for his study of the major empires—including the Dutch, the British, and the American—putting into perspective the “Big Cycle” that has driven the successes and failures of all the world’s major countries throughout history. He reveals the timeless and universal forces behind these shifts and uses them to look into the future, offering practical principles for positioning oneself for what’s ahead.

As an engineer, the effort to apply a quantitative method to world powers past and present appealed to me; Some pros: – He makes a pretty good case for the rise and fall cycles – The world history with all the included data is very interesting Some cons: – It’s a little disappointing to finish the book without providing methods to mitigate the direction or negative consequences of a falling world power, either at the personal or national level. – As others have noted, he appears unwilling to honestly assess current-day China, perhaps due to his own personal business blow-back. His lack of addressing the obvious moral and economic risks of a totalitarian regime negates much of the value of the book. He suggests that the Chinese people are wired to value the greater good which is directed by government, versus the self-improvement motivation of all other nations on the planet which he doesn’t defend with any unbiased studies
Overall the book provides a good overview of the last 500 years. Ray Dalio is usually on point in his financial advice, but this one was a swing and a miss for me. He constantly finds ways to praise China, omit their pathetic false data reporting, and dismiss anything that his Chinese overlords would not like. My question for him is, if the U.S. is so bad, why does he live in the U.S. and still keep Bridgewater based in the U.S.? The reality is that he knows the Chinese would never allow him the freedom of speech to print such a book if he bad mouthed them the way he did the U.S. As an American and senior military officer, I can say that his military assumptions were way off and laughable at times. He should not even delve into this discussion because his numbers were so off and capabilities of military technology, vessels, equipment, etc. was essentially useless. I could write a rebuttal book just on his inaccuracies in Chapter 13 alone. Long story short, his military “facts” pertaining to the military is basically garbage. His numbers and capabilities are so far off it is not even worth reading. I truly expected more from Ray. This book was so biased it was extremely hard to get through. According to Ray, China is the second coming of Jesus Christ and everyone else in history should be grateful just to witness their awesomeness. He discounts every negative aspect of China at every possible turn, and belittles every of great empire. For example, he speaks about how 37 years ago he gave calculators to the Chinese as gifts and they marveled at the machine. Fast forward to today, and China is second to none in technology. They achieved that level of technologic advancement in only 37 years. He goes on to state that the U.S. has remained stagnant in technology during the same timeframe. What the hell is he talking about? China has been around for 7,000 years while the U.S. has only existed for about 350 years, China has a population 4x that of the U.S., and nearly every technology invention for the last 50 years has come fr the U.S.! The internet, computer, smart phone, social media, digital supply chain management systems, enterprise systems, etc. were ALL invented by the U.S. not the Chinese, but Ray fails to mention any of this. The book is so disgustingly biased that it is hard to read. I would have given it one star, but at least his history over the last 500 years pertaining to the rest of the world was useful in understanding big cycles and empire transitions.
As a kid the Foundation novels by Isaac Asimov were one of my favorite series. The idea that Hari Seldon could invent a science so precise that he could predict the future and see the eventual downfall of the Galactic Empire was fascinating. As an adult, the idea that Ray Dalio has succeeded in analyzing similar trends and sees the eventual downfall of the United States and the rise of China terrifies me. This book is a fascinating, eye-opening read for anyone interested in history, politics and economics and should be required reading for political leaders and activists from across the spectrum. Truly one of the best books I have read in years!
I’ve read several of Dalio’s books and they seem to be getting worse. Big Debt Crises was very good. Principles for Life & Work was ok, but this one was just not very interesting. He took very cursory views of history, made some broad generalizations, but, contrary to the title, provided very few principles for how to deal with the changing world order.

 

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